We Are At a Demographic Tipping Point

For some time now demographers have predicted that America will eventually become a country that no longer has a white majority. The latest census data released last week shows that for newborn babies we are already at that point. When the count was taken more than a year ago, 49.8 percent of infants in their first year of life were not white, and with the natural progression of births over the last year it is certain that the number has pushed past the 50 percent marker.

Each year, as the babies of 2010 become toddlers, then preschoolers, elementary school children, teens and finally young adults, this wave will move across our demographic landscape. Eventually it will reach 50 percent of the entire population. We now have a generation gap that is ethnic in nature.

I am familiar with generation gaps. I am from the first wave of Baby Boomers and I grew up watching a cultural generation gap ripple through our society. Some of my contemporaries might say that I helped cause the wave and did not just surf it. Now my grandson is riding a new wave.

William Frey, a leading demographer at the Brookings Institution, says that this new demographic wave "my exacerbate existing cultural generation gaps, as older, largely white generations may be slow to recognize the promise of this change." Such careful, academic language! We are already seeing reactionary convulsions.

What does this mean for religion?

The most immediate reality is that children's ministries and youth ministries are becoming largely ethnic minority activities. Even in historically white congregations, most of the people in Kindergarten are going to be people of color. Or, there will be very few, if any people in Kindergarten. Youth groups will soon enough have the same reality. There are parts of the country where this will not be a reality for another generation; the Northwest and the Upper Midwest. At the same time ethnic minorities now make up more than 40 percent of the infants in more than half the states.

Increasingly church growth cannot be a reality without the inclusion of ethnic minorities. Congregations that want to grow will have to embrace people of color and immigrants. That will force them to come to terms with the essential unfairness and enormous red tape of our immigration laws. Just as that issue has caused deep conflicts in our nation, it will cause conflicts in congregations. Christian fellowships will be tried to the core and we will find out what their true character is.

Comments

[Rich DuBose]

Bring it on. The more cultural diversity the better. The rich blend of cultures gives us a better picture of who God is. One of the hardest experiences I've ever had was to move from an area where there was a mix of cultures and races to a community where everyone was white like me. I felt like I was stranded on a desert isle.

[Caleb Jara]

This has been so for ever in the places and times inwhich the church have had revival; the first century, per example. The Gospels and Revelations informs us that the Remant wil come form "ALL nations, tounges and people" This is also true in America now.
Caleb Jara, Anaheim California

[chris]

Here is a complementary view that raises additional issues
http://www.nationaljournal.com/columns/political-connections/why-america-must-bridge-the-widening-gap-between-the-brown-and-the-gray-20110908